学科分类
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1 个结果
  • 简介:Manyglobalemissionreductionstrategieshavebeenproposed,butfewhavebeenassessedquantitativelyfromtheviewofequality,efficiencyandeffectiveness.Integratedassessmentmodels(IAM)isoneoftheeffectivewaystomakeclimatepolicymodeling.SointhispaperwedevelopedtheMRICES(Multi-regionalintegratedmodelofclimateandeconomywithGDPspillovers)model,whichisanIAMbutextendstoincludeGDPspillovermechanism,tomakeassessmentonseveralstrategiesforglobalemissionreduction,includingtheegalitarianismstrategy,theUNDPstrategyandtheCopenhagenAccord.Using1990asabaselineforhistoricalemissionlevels,theegalitarianstrategyarguesthatdevelopedcountriesshouldimplementurgentemissionreductions,whereasdevelopingcountriesareallowedrelativelyhigherfutureemissionquotas.TheUNDPstrategyaddressestheissueofsubstantialchangesinglobaltemperaturebutacknowledgesthatdevelopingcountriesarenotabletoaffordmorecostsformitigationmeasures,whichisinequitablefromtheperspectiveofacountry’srighttodevelop.WealsosimulatedtheCopenhagenAccordtodeterminetheconsequencesbytheyear2100ifeachcountrycontinuestheircurrentemissionmitigationactions,andresultsindicatedthattheincreaseinglobaltemperaturewillbe2.8℃by2100;consequently,muchstrongeremissionreductioneffortsmustbeimplementedafter2020.Basedonanalysisonmitigationstrategies,itisrecognizedthatthecommonbutdifferentiatedresponsibilityprinciplemustbeinsistedwhenmakingglobalmitigationstrategy.Tocomplywiththisprinciple,theemissionreductionbaselineofdevelopedanddevelopingcountriesshouldbediscriminated,so1990and2005canbetakenasthebaseyearfordevelopedanddevelopingcountriesrespectively.

  • 标签: 综合评估模型 减排 发展中国家 应用 国内生产总值 发达国家