简介:
简介:Background:Tropicaldryforestscoverlessthan13%oftheworld'stropicalforestsandtheirareaandbiodiversityaredeclining.InsouthernAfrica,themajorthreatisincreasingpopulationpressure,whiledroughtcausedbyclimatechangeisapotentialthreatinthedriertransitionzonestoshrubland.Monitoringclimatechangeimpactsinthesetransitionzonesisdifficultasthereisinadequateinformationonforestcompositiontoallowdisentanglementfromotherenvironmentaldrivers.Methods:Thisstudycombinedhistoricalandmodernforestinventoriescoveringanareaof21,000km~2inatransitionzoneinNamibiaandAngolatodistinguishlatesuccessiontreecommunities,tounderstandtheirdependenceonsitefactors,andtodetecttrendsintheforestcompositionoverthelast40years.Results:Thewoodlandsweredominatedbysixtreespeciesthatrepresented84%ofthetotalbasalareaandcanbereferredtoasBaikiaea-Pterocarpuswoodlands.Aboostedregressiontreeanalysisrevealedthatlatesuccessiontreecommunitiesareprimarilydeterminedbyclimateandtopography.TheSchinziophytonrautaneniiandBaikiaeaplurijugacommunitiesarecommononslightlyinclinedduneorvalleyslopesandhadthehighestbasalarea(5.5-6.2m~2ha~(-1)).TheBurkeaafricana-GuibourtiacoleospermaandPterocarpusangolensis-Dialiumenglerianumcommunitiesaretypicalforthesandyplateauxandhaveahigherproportionofsmallerstemscausedbyahigherfirefrequency.AdecreaseinoverallbasalareaoratrendofincreasingdominationbythemoredroughtandcoldresilientB.africanacommunitywasnotconfirmedbythehistoricaldata,butthereweresignificantdecreasesinbasalareaforOchnapulchraandthevaluablefruittreeD.englerianum.Conclusions:Theslopecommunitiesaremoreshelteredfromfire,frostanddroughtbutaremoresusceptibletohumanexpansion.ThecommunitywiththeimportanttimbertreeP.angolensiscanbestwithstandhighfirefrequencybutshowssignsofahighervulnerabilitytoclimatechange.Conse