简介：Projectionsfor20yearsofeconomicgrowthandchangeinthestructureoftheThaieconomyweremadefor180sectorsusingacomputablegeneralequilibrium(CGE)modeltocomparethefollowingfourscenarios:(1)standardgrowthwithinfinitesupplyoffactors,(2)finitelandsupply,(3)fixeduseofagriculturalchemicals,and(4)combinedfinitelandsupplywithfixeduseofagriculturalchemicals.Thecomputableprojectionssuggestthattheeconomiccostofhypotheticalenvironmentalcontrolinagricultureissmallandfurtherweakenedbyurbanization.Thecomputedstructuraldevelopmentpointstoefficiencyimprovementsspecifictosectorstoreturntheeconomytobalancedgrowth.

简介：Climatechangehasbecomewidelyacceptedasachallengethathumanswillfaceinthenot-too-distantfuture.Mountainecosystemsandtheirinhabitantsareamongthemostvulnerabletoclimatechange.ThispaperseekstoexplainmigrationdriversinspecificmountainregionsinthecontextofclimatechangebasedonForesight’sconceptualframework.AclimatechangesensitivefieldnamedShangnanCountyinsouthernShaanxiProvinceischosenasthecasestudyareatoinvestigatelocalmigrationdrivers.Aseriesofqualitativeresearchmethodsisemployedinthecasestudyincludingparticipantobservation,semi-structuredinterviews,andfocusgroupdiscussions.Theevidenceofsurveysuggeststhatmigrationdecisionsarenotonlyshapedbymacrofactorsinaspectsofenvironmental,economics,demographic,social,politicsandpsychological,butalsoinfluencedbyplaced-relatedbarriersandfacilitatingmechanismsandpersonalcharacteristics.