简介：Consideringtheimportanceofblackcarbon(BC),thisstudybeganbycomparingthe20thcenturysimulationofSouthAsiansummerclimateinIPCCCMIP3,basedonthescenarioofmodelswithandwithoutBC.Generally,themulti-modelmeanofthemodelsthatincludeBCreproducedtheobservedclimaterelativelybetterthanthosethatdidnot.Then,the21stcenturySouthAsiansummerprecipitationwasprojectedbasedontheIPCCCMIP3projectionsimulations.Theprojectedprecipitationinthepresentapproachexhibitedaconsiderabledifferencefromthemultimodelensemblemean(MME)ofIPCCAR4projectionsimulations,andalsofromtheMMEofthemodelsthatignoretheeffectofBC.Inparticular,thepresentprojectionexhibitedadryanomalyoverthecentralIndianPeninsula,sandwichedbetweenwetconditionsonthesouthernandnorthernsidesofPakistanandIndia,ratherthanhomogeneouswetconditionsasseenintheMMEofIPCCAR4.Thus,thespatialpatternofSouthAsiansummerrainfallinthefuturemaybemorecomplicatedthanpreviouslythought.

简介：3D地震波走时计算是偏移、反偏移、层析等诸多地震勘探技术中的重要中间步骤。快速推进法计算3D地震波走时具有高效率、稳定性及适应能力强的特点，但快速推进法在震源附近区域的计算精度不高，降低了整个走时算法的计算精度。本文提出了一种联合3D走时计算方法来解决这一问题。该方法在震源附近小范围内使用计算精度较高的波前构建法计算走时，在剩余区域使用快速推进法计算走时，由于模型中绝大多数网格节点走时是通过快速推进法计算的，故新方法保留了快速推进法高效的特点，同时由于震源附近网格节点走时精度的提高，整个新算法的计算精度相对于快速推进法而言有了较大的改善。文中通过数值分析对上述结论进行了验证并使用三维岩丘模型验证了新方法的稳定性和适应能力。

简介：Thetyphoon,asamaturetropicalcyclonethatdevelopsinthewesternpartoftheNorthPacificOceanwithhighwindspeedandheavyrainfall,isoneofthemostlethalandcostlyofnaturaldisastersforthedenselypopulatedcountriesofEastAsia.Itcanbeeasilydetectedbyspace-bornesensorsoperatedatmicrowave,visibleorinfraredbands(Liuetal.,2014).SyntheticApertureRadar(SAR)is

简介：利用多种常规观测资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,分析了2017年3月1日江苏北部出现的一次罕见冷空气雷雨大风天气过程的发生背景、地面要素和云团演变特征,同时从大气动力、热力和水汽条件出发分析了午后对流的成因。结果表明：此次过程发生前,江苏地区位于高空槽前,对流层中低层有冷式切变线伴随两股冷空气南下,受江苏省北部地面气旋阻挡,冷空气在上游堆积,当气旋东移入海冷空气爆发式南下时,造成严重的大风灾害。此次过程中,对流层中高层大气降温而低层回温使大气温度直减率增大,为对流发生提供不稳定条件,但水汽输送主要集中在低层,且高层大气无明显抽吸作用,导致此次过程未发生强对流性降水,主要以大风灾害性天气为主。

简介：Inthispaper,accordingtotheresultsofthesatelliteimageryinterpretationandfieldinvestigation,westudytheactivefeaturesandthelatestactivetimesoftheChuxiong-Nanhuafault,theQuaternarybasinsformationmechanism,andtherelationshipbetweenthefaultandthe1680ChuxiongMs6%earthquake.SeveralQuaternaryprofilesatLvhe,NanhuarevealthatthefaulthasoffsetthelatePleistocenedepositsoftheT2andT3terracesofLongchuanriver,indicatingthatthefaultwasobviouslyactiveinlateQuaternary,TheChuxiong-NanhuafaulthasbeendominatedbydextralstrikeslipmotioninthelateQuaternary,withanaveragerateof1.6-2.Omm/a.SeveralpullapartQuaternarybasinsofChuxiong,Nanhua,andZiwuetc.havedevelopedalongthefault.The1680ChuxiongMs6%earthquakeandseveralmoderateearthquakeshaveoccurrednearthefault.TheChuxiong-Nanhuafaultaretheseismogenicstructureofthoseearthquakes,thelatestfaultmovementwasinthelate-Pleistocene,andeventheHolocene.Inlargearea,theChuxiong-NanhuafaultandtheeasternQujiangfaultandtheShipingfaultcomposedasetofNW-trendingobliqueorientationactivefaults,andthemotioncharacteristicsareallmainlydextralstrikeslip.Themotioncharacteristics,liketheredriverfaultoftheSichuan-YunnanRhombicBlocksouthwesternboundary,areconcernedwiththeescapingmovementoftheSichuan-YunnanRhombicBlock.

简介：AssimilatingsatelliteradiancesintoNumericalWeatherPrediction(NWP)modelshasbecomeanimportantapproachtoincreasetheaccuracyofnumericalweatherforecasting.Inthisstudy,theassimilationtechniqueschemewasemployedinNOAA’sSTMAS(Space-TimeMultiscaleAnalysisSystem)toassimilateAMSU-Aradiancesdata.Channelselectionsensitivityexperimentswereconductedonassimilatedsatellitedatainthefirstplace.Then,realcaseanalysisofAMSU-Adataassimilationwasperformed.Theanalysisresultsshowedthat,followingassimilatingofAMSU-Achannels5-11inSTMAS,theobjectivefunctionquicklyconverged,andthechannelverticalresponsewasconsistentwiththeAMSU-Aweightingfunctiondistribution,whichsuggeststhatthechannelscanbeusedintheassimilationofsatellitedatainSTMAS.WiththecaseoftheTyphoonMorakotinTaiwanIslandinAugust2009asanexample,experimentsonassimilatedandunassimilatedAMSU-AradiancesdataweredesignedtoanalyzetheimpactoftheassimilationofsatellitedataonSTMAS.TheresultsdemonstratedthatassimilationofAMSU-Adataprovidedmoreaccuratepredictionoftheprecipitationregionandintensity,andespecially,itimprovedthe0-6hprecipitationforecastsignificantly.

简介：Modelinggeomechanicalpropertiesofshalestomakesenseoftheircomplexpropertiesisattheforefrontofpetroleumexplorationandexploitationapplicationandhasreceivedmuchresearchattentioninrecentyears.Ashale'skeygeomechanicalpropertieshelptoidentifyits'fracibility'itsfluidflowpatternsandrates,anditsin-placepetroleumresourcesandpotentialcommercialreserves.Themodelsandtheinformationtheyprovide,inturn,enableengineerstodesigndrillingpatterns,fracture-stimulationprogramsandmaterialsselectionthatwillavoidformationdamageandoptimizerecoveryofpetroleum.Awide-rangeoftools,technologies,experimentsandmathematicaltechniquesaredeployedtoachievethis.Characterizingtheinterconnectedfracture,permeabilityandporositynetworkisanessentialstepinunderstandingashaleshighly-anisotropicfeaturesonmultiplescales(nanotomacro).Well-logdata,anditspetrophysicalinterpretationtocalibratemanygeomechanicalmetricstothosemeasuredinrocksamplesbylaboratorytechniquesplaysakeyroleinprovidingaffordabletoolsthatcanbedeployedcost-effectivelyinmultiplewellbores.Likewise,microseismicdatahelpstomatchfracturedensityandpropagationobservedonareservoirscalewithpredictionsfromsimulationsandlaboratorytestsconductedonidealised/simplifieddiscretefracturenetworkmodels.Shalescomplexwettability,adsorptionandwaterimbibitioncharacteristicshaveasignificantinfluenceonpotentialformationdamageduringstimulationandtheshort-termandlongtermflowofpetroleumachievable.Manygasflowmechanismsandmodelsareproposedtakingintoaccountthemultipleflowmechanismsinvolved(e.g.,desorption,diffusion,slippageandviscousflowoperatingatmultipleporositylevelsfromnano-tomacro-scales).Fittinghistoricalproductiondataandwelldeclinecurvestomodelpredictionshelpstoverifywhethermodel'sgeomechanicalassumptionsarerealisticornot.Thisreviewdiscussesthetechniques

简介：柱体的垂直摆动与不同直径比率Dd/Dc和厚度比率td/Dc被3D学习(三维)在这份报纸开发的数字模型，并且通过2D与结果相比获得了(二维)数字模型。高顺序的迎风的计划被使用稳定计算，并且集中被多格子方法加速。2D和3D模拟结果之间的差别的质、量的分析与一个依附底部的磁盘在流动地特征和垂直地震荡的柱体的水动力学系数上揭示3D效果。液体领域上的3D效果主要在三个流旋涡的模式的意义被反映：x相对在2D模拟产生的旋涡在锋利的边附近在流动地上有更大的效果。在沿着轴的取向的片，沿着光线的轴的y比沿着环绕的方向的x，更在速度上显示光线的效果在磁盘的锋利的边附近比环绕的效果读了。旋转相互作用在水平飞机的液体的z在举运动期间是不足道的。基于2D和3D模拟结果，分开增加的集体系数和抑制比率的增加的政体的转弯的点被识别。直径比率Dd/Dc和厚度比率td/Dc详细被讨论。

简介：利用2012年夏季山西省太原、大同、临汾3个温室气体观测站的近地面O_3及相关前体物NOx、NO2、NO、CO观测数据及同期气象观测资料,分析山西省夏季O_3体积分数与污染状况、O_3的时间变化特征及O_3与其前体物体积分数的相关性,同时分析气温、相对湿度、风速、降水和日照时数等气象因素对O_3体积分数的影响。结果表明：山西太原、大同、临汾3个城市的O_3小时体积分数与日最大8h平均体积分数都有超标情况发生,夏季O_3污染以临汾最严重、大同相对最轻;一日内O_3小时体积分数最大值出现在15：00左右,最小值出现在06：00左右,日变化呈单峰型分布,其中临汾O_3小时体积分数的昼夜变化振幅最大、大同最小;各城市NOx、NO2、NO、CO等前体物体积分数均呈现白天低、夜间高的日变化过程,与O_3日变化呈负相关;气温是影响夏季O_3体积分数的最重要因素,其次为相对湿度,风速贡献最小,夏季O_3体积分数高值多在高温低湿的午后,且太原、临汾O_3体积分数受局地气象因素影响比大同显著。

简介：

简介：为评价ORYZA（V3）模型在海南岛双季稻发育期模拟的适应性,利用2005—2014年海南岛双季稻区4个站点（海口、儋州、乐东、琼海）的逐日气象数据、气象灾害资料、土壤、水稻发育期等观测资料,对模型进行调参与验证,本地化不同品种水稻发育期参数;统计双季稻各个发育期出现的气象灾害及其次数,筛选出各个发育期内出现次数较多的气象灾害。以单独的气象灾害为背景,对各个发育期的模拟与实测结果进行对比验证。结果表明：ORYZA（V3）模型对海南岛双季稻发育期的模拟精度较高,决定系数R2〉0.90,归一化均方根误差NRMSE为3.97%~9.80%;双季稻发育期内出现的气象灾害次数由多到少依次为：高温、台风、干旱;ORYZA（V3）模型对气象灾害的敏感性从大到小依次为：台风、高温、干旱。在台风背景下,仅晚稻开花期的R2为0.90,NRMSE为3.90%,其他发育期的模拟均在误差范围外;在高温背景下,早稻的R2为0.87~0.89,晚稻的R2为0.18~0.61,双季稻的NRMSE为3.49%~5.71%;在干旱背景下,R2〉0.87,NRMSE为3.11%~9.73%。评价结果在模型应用和优化方面具有一定的参考价值。

简介：Anew3Dvelocitymodelofthecrustanduppermantleinthesoutheastern(SE)marginoftheTibetanplateauwasobtainedbyjointinversionofbody-andsurface-wavedata.Forthebody-wavedata,weused7190eventsrecordedby102stationsintheSEmarginoftheTibetanplateau.Thesurface-wavedataconsistofRayleighwavephasevelocitydispersioncurvesobtainedfromambientnoisecross-correlationanalysisrecordedbyadensearrayintheSEmarginoftheTibetanplateau.ThejointinversionclearlyimprovesthevSmodelbecauseitisconstrainedbybothdatatypes.Theresultsshowthatataround10kmdepththerearetwolow-velocityanomaliesembeddedwithinthreehigh-velocitybodiesalongtheLongmenshanfaultsystem.Thesehigh-velocitybodiescorrespondwellwiththePrecambrianmassifs,andthetwolocatedtothenortheastof2013MS7.0Lushanearthquakeareassociatedwithhighfaultslipareasduringthe2008Wenchuanearthquake.Theaftershockgapbetween2013Lushanearthquakeand2008Wenchuanearthquakeisassociatedwithlow-velocityanomalies,whichalsoactsasabarrierzoneforrupturesoftwoearthquakes.Generallylargeearthquakes(M≥5)intheregionoccurringfrom2008to2015arelocatedaroundthehigh-velocityzones,indicatingthattheymayactasasperitiesfortheselargeearthquakes.Jointinversionresultsalsoclearlyshowthatthereexistlow-velocityorweakzonesinthemid-lowercrust,whicharenotevenlydistributedbeneaththeSEmarginofTibetanplateau.

简介：距今4—3千年正值中华文明确立和发展的重要时期,这个时段的气候变化资料有利于深入理解环境与人类文明发展的相互关系。本研究利用辽宁本溪庙洞石笋MD11,通过^230Th定年和高分辨率氧同位素分析,重建了4.09—2.84kaBP东北地区南部夏季风降水变化历史。4.09—3.85kaBP时段,东亚夏季风较为稳定,期间在约3.95kaBP前后出现短暂的夏季风小幅度减弱,与亚洲季风区石笋记录类似,推测4.2ka事件应早于4.1kaBP,支持早前南方石笋记录的结论;3.85—2.84kaBP时段,庙洞石笋沉积速率显著降低,氧同位素整体偏正,说明这段时间内东亚季风总体偏弱,辽宁东部地区夏季风降水偏少,期间只在3.05kaBP先后出现持续时间约为数十年的夏季风增强过程。