摘要
Theoscillationofmulti-timescalesandtheprocessoftransitionbetweencoldandwarmperiodsovermostpartsofChinaandits6regions(theNortheast,NorthChina,ChangjiangRiverValley,SouthChina,theSouthwest,theNorthwest)wereanalyzedwithwavelettransformationandbycomputingthevariancesofthewaveletcomponentsforthetemperaturegradeseriesduringJanuary191ItoFebruary2001,Thepredictionmodelforcoldandwarmperiodshasbeendevelopedandthetrendofcoldandwarmchangeinthecoming10yearsispredicted.Theresultsshowthattheoscillationwithperiodsofaround30-40yearswasthestrongestinthelast100yearsandthe3-yearoscillationinbothwinterandsummerwasalsostronger,especiallyinwinter.Thetransitiontimeofcoldandwarmperiodsintermsofwintermeandidnotcoincidewiththatofannualmean,butthedifferencebetweensummermeanandannualmeanisless.Theprocessesoftransitionof6regionsaresomewhatdifferent,theirmaincharacteristicsarethatthebeginningyearofsignificantwarmingfor1980sto1990swasverydifferentforthesouthernandthenorthernpartofChina.Itisfoundthatthestrongeroscillationwith3-yearperiodcausescoolinginNortheastChinainrecentseveralwinters.Theexperimentalpredictionsshowthatthemodelsusedinthepapercanprojectthemajortransitionbetweenhighandlowtemperatureperiods.
出版日期
2003年02月12日（中国期刊网平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）
