Objective:Theaimofthisstudywastoestablishtheriskscoringsystemtowardstheadvancedcolorectalneoplasm(CN)riskintheaverage-riskpopulationsinthesouthernJiangsuProvince,andtoevaluatethescreeningefficacy.Methods:Totally905casesoftheaverage-riskpopulationswhoreceivedthecolonoscopywereselectedastheobjective.Themultivariatelogisticregressionanalysismethodwasusedtoestablishthescoringsystemtowardstheoccurrenceriskoftheadvancedtumor,anditsscreeningefficacywasevaluatedthroughthepredictionconsistency,distinguishingabilityandscreeningaccuracy.Results:Thescoringsystemconsistedoffivevariables,namelyage,gender,coronaryheartdisease,eggintakeandstoolfrequency.Theresultsrevealedthatithadgoodpredictionconsistency(P=0.205)anddistinguishingability[theareaunderthereceiveroperatingcharacteristic(ROC)curvewas0.75,with95%confidenceinterval(95%CI)of0.69-0.82].Thus,2.5pointswassetasthescreeningcutoffvalue,anditssensitivity,specificity,accuracy,positivepredictivevalue,negativepredictivevalue,positivelikelihoodratioandnegativelikelihoodratiowere93.8%,47.6%,50.1%,9.1%,99.3%,1.79and0.13,respectively.Conclusions:Theestablishedscoringsystemhadgoodscreeningefficacy,andcanbeusedasthescreeningtoolapplyingtotheCNscreeningwithintheaverage-riskpopulationsinthesouthernJiangsuProvince.
