Empirical analysis of carbon tariff’s effect on the export structure of China’s manufacturing industry and social welfare based on the GTAP model

Inrecentyears,carbonemissionshavegraduallyevolvedfromanenvironmentissueintoapoliticalandeconomicone.Carbontariffhasbroughtaboutnewtradebarriersofdevelopedcountries,andinordertoenhancetheindustrialcompetitivenessofdevelopedcountries,itwillproduceunfavorableimpactondevelopingcountries.Concentratedonthemanufacturingindustry,whichisthemostintensivehigh-carbonindustryinChina’sexportstructure,thisarticlestudiestherelationshipbetweencarbontariffpolicyandindustrystructureofexporttradeandbuildsuparelationbetweenclimatechangeandinternationaltrade.First,bymeansofestablishingapartialequilibriummodel,itappliesgeometricanalysisandmathematicalanalysistocomputetheimpactonChina’smanufacturingexporttradeandtheconsequencesoftheintroductionoftheUScarbontarifftoChina’smanufacturingindustrythathasalreadyimposedadomesticshippingcarbontax.Furthermore,withtheapplicationoftheGTAPmodel,itestimatestheoveralleconomicandwelfareeffectsonChina’smanufacturingindustryiftheUSandEuropeintroducecarbontariffbymeansoffourways,andthenanalyzestheinfluenceonChina’smanufacturingindustryexportstructureandsocialwelfareaswell.TheresultshowsthattheintroductionoftheUScarbonimporttarifflowersChina’sexportpriceandexportvolume,andtheimplementationofadomesticcarbontaxjustifiesahigherexportpriceandalowerexportvolumeforChina.However,thedegreeofexportreductionissmallerthanthatundertheeffectoftheUScarbontariff.InthecaseofdevelopedcountriesimposingcarbontariffonChina’senergy-intensiveindustries,suchaschemicalrubberproducts,oilandcoal-processingindustryandpaperindustry,whoseexportwouldbereduced,thenegativeimpactonthepaperindustryistheseverest,whichwilldecreasethepaperindustry’sexportrangingfrom1.79%to6.05%,whereastheotherindustries’exportwillincrease.Anyhow,itwillpromoteChina�