Basedonpreviousresearchresults,present-daycrustaldeformationandgravityfieldsintheChinesemainlandareanalyzedusingtheGPSdata,leveling,gravityandcross-faultdeformations.Weanalyzedstrainaccumulationofthemajorfaults,andidentifiedlockedorhighstrainaccumulationsegments.Combiningtheeffectsoflargeearthquakesinthestudyarea,thelong-term(decade)probabilityoflargeearthquakesintheChinesemainlandisestimated.