Tools for Analysing Shares

There are many methods to assess the fair value of a

share. Before the value of a share can be determined, we

must un-derstand what it is. Shares in general re-fer to

the ordinary shares issued by the company, and they

represent the owner-ship of a part of a company. Suppose a

company has issued a million shares and you own one share,

this means that you own one millionth of that company.

Since shares represent ownership of a company's pidend,

profit, revenue, as-set and cash flow, the ways to value

shares will be based on these five catego-ries of figures.



　Financial ratio analysis is based on these five categories

of data in a com-pany's balance sheet and income state-ment,

and turns them into ratios for com-parison. Besides

comparing between the company's present and historical

ratios, comparisons are also made against other similar

companies, the industry average and the overall stock market

average.



　We will start with the pidend yield, which is defined as

pidend received in a year pided by the share price. For

example, a company pays five cents pi-dend a year and its

share price is a dollar, then the pidend yield is 5%

($0.05 pi-ded by $1 mutliplied by 100). One can find out

the amount of pidends paid by companies from Monday's

Lianhe Zaobao or Teletext. These show the pidend amount

and the ex-pidend date. One only re-ceives the pidend

if the share is bought before the ex-pidend date. In the

newspapers or Teletext, a share with 'cd' behind the company

name indicates cum-pidend and 'xd' means ex-pidend.



　Sometimes, the pidend amount is stated in percentage

rather than cents. One should not confuse the percentage

stated as pidend yield. The percentage is based on the

pidend declared pided by the par value, not the share

price. Most shares have a par value of $1. Those with a

par value other than $1 have their par value printed behind

the com-pany name. For example, 'SingTel 15￠ means that

Singapore Telecom has a par value of 15 cents. Last year,

Singapore Telecom declared a pidend of 5 cents or 33.33%

(i.e. 5 cents pided by 15 cents). Based on share price of

$2.70 then, its di-vidend yield is $0.05/$2.70=0.0185%, not

33.33%.



　A company usually pays pidends twice a year, one

declared during the in-terim results (known as interim

pidend) and the other during the final results (final

pidend). When calculating the pidend yield, one should

add both the interim and final pidends to arrive at the

annual di-vidend. In a particular year, a company might

achieve a very high profit that is unlikely to be repeated,

but it wishes to reward shareholders with a higher di-vidend

without building up expectation that the high pidend will

be repeated. In this situation, the company will declare a special pidend on top of the usual one. When forecasting a future pidend, one should take note that the special pidend is unlikely to occur again. 　The payout ratio refers to the propor-tion of profit paid to shareholders. For example, a company which earns $1 per share and pays out a pidend of 30 cents per share, has a payout ratio of 30%. For a company to pay good pidends, it must have sufficient profit to be able to pay and it must be willing to pay. For a gro-wing company, it will have to keep most of its profit to buy more plants and equip-ment and thus its pidend payout ratio will be low. There are also some com-panies which prefer to keep the profits for rainy days and are therefore reluctant to pay them out as pidends. A typical company with a high pidend payout normally owns a mature cash-generating business and it does not have any worthy expansion plan. A good example is toba-cco stocks. However, a high payout ratio does not necessarily lead to a high pi-dend yield because the share price could be high too. 　The returns obtained from investing in a share can be broken down into two components - capital gain and pidend yield. If the share price does not change, then the investment return is equal to the pidend yield. The risk of buying a share that offers a high pidend yield is therefore capital loss, i.e. the share price falls. In the end, the share price could fall so much that the capital loss wipes out all the pidend yield. It, however, remains a loss if the share is not sold. Most invest-ment books recommend stocks with a high pidend yield for investors who are retired or need a steady stream of income. If one invests for yield, the pi-dend yield will have to be higher than de-posit interest rates in order to be attrac-tive. （The writer is a graduate from a university in the United Kingdom.） 　　

分析股票的工具　 　　评估股票的合理价值有许多方法。在评估之前，我们必须了解股 票是什么东西。股票一般是指公司所发行的普通股，它代表了股东对 公司的拥有权。假设某间公司发行了100万股，而你拥有一股，那就 表示你拥有整间公司的百万分之一。既然股票代表了公司的股息、盈 利、营业额、资产及现金流量的拥有权，评定股票价值的方法就从上 述五方面着手。 　　比率分析就是将一间公司资产负债表与损益表中的这五项数字， 转化为可供比较的财务比率。所谓比较，除了比较该公司的现在与过 去之外，比较的对象也包括相同行业的其他公司，整个行业的平均以 及整体股市的平均。 　　先从股息率（也称周息率）说起。股息率是一年的总股息除以股 价。例如，一间公司派发0.05元的股息，而它的股价是1元，那么， 股息率就是5%（0.05元除以1元）。若要知道公司所派的股息有多少 ，可以查阅星期一的《联合早报》或电视资讯。它们会显示股息额和 除权日期。只有在除权日期之前购买股票才能享有股息。在报纸或电 视资讯，公司名称后若附有“cd”，表示该股票包括股息，而“xd” 则表示不包括股息。 　　有些时候股息的数目是以百分比表达的，而非实际数额。投资者 不可以把这个百分比与股息率混淆。这个百分比是股息除以面值（而 非股价）。多数股票的面值是1元。若不是1元，它们的面值会显示在 公司名称的后面。例如，“SingTel 15￠”表示新电信的面值是0.15 元。去年新电信宣布5分股息或33.33%（0.05分除以0.15元）。根据 $2.70的股价，它当时的股息率是$0.05÷$2.70=1.85%，而非33.33%。 　　一间公司通常一年里会派息两次，一次在中期业绩时（称为中期 股息），而另一次在年终业绩时（年终股息）。计算股息率时，一年 的总股息包括了中期和年终股息。某一年，公司的盈利可能达到非常 高的水平，但是来年却难再创同样的佳绩。公司希望以更高的股息回 报股东，可是又不希望股东期待下一次的股息同样高。在这样的情况 下，公司会宣布往常的股息再加上特别股息。所以，要预测未来的股 息，他得注意特别股息将难以重复。 　　派息率（也称配息率）是指公司净利分派给股东的比率。举例来 说，一间赚取每股1元盈利的公司准备派发0.30元股息，它的派息率 是30%。一间公司若要派发高股息，它必须有充足的净利以及有足够 的意愿去做。成长中的公司必须把赚到的盈利保留下来，添置厂房和 机械，所以它的派息率较低。有些公司则要保留盈利，以备危急时可 用，所以不愿把盈利分发出去。高派息率的公司通常从事成熟的行业 兼拥有大量现金，以及没有任何值得投资的扩展计划。烟草股就是个 好例子。不过，高派息率并不表示公司的股息率是高的，因为其股价 也可能挺高的。 　　投资股票的回报可分为两部分——资本增值和股息率。若是股价 不变，那么，投资回报率只等于股息率。所以，购买高股息率股票的 风险就是资本损失，也就是股价下跌。最后，股价可能跌到资本损失 完全盖过股息率。不过，这只是帐面上的亏损，因为股票还在手里。 许多投资书都建议退休人士或仰赖固定收益的人购买高股息率的股票 。如果纯为了收益投资股票，那么，所得的股息率必须高于存款利息 。（作者是英国大学毕业生）