Design Code Calibration of Offshore Platform Against Typhoon/Hurricane Attacks

(整期优先)网络出版时间:2010-03-13
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HurricanesKatrinaandRitaresultedinthelargestnumberofplatformsdestroyedanddamagedinthehistoryofGulfofMexicooperations.Withthetrendofglobalwarming,sealevelrisingandthefrequencyandintensityoftyphoonincrease.Howtodetermineareasonabledeckelevationagainstthelargesthurricanewaveshasbecomeakeyissueinoffshoreplatformsdesignandconstructionfortheunificationofeconomyandsafety.Inthispaper,themultivariatecompoundextremevaluedistribution(MCEVD)modelisusedtopredictthedeckelevationwithdifferentcombinationoftide,surgeheight,andcrestheight.ComparedwithpracticerecommendedbyAmericanPetroleumInstitute(API),thepredictionbyMCEVDhasprobabilisticmeaninganduniversality.