简介:Twoaspectsofanewmethod,whichcanbeusedforseismiczoning,areintroducedinthispaper.Ontheonehand,theapproachtoestimatebvalueandannualactivityrateproposedbyKijkoandSellevollneedstousetheearthquakecatalogue.Theexistingearthquakecataloguecontainsbothhistoricalandrecentinstrumentaldatasetsanditisinadequatetouseonlyonepart.Combiningthelargenumberofhistoricaleventswithrecentcompleterecordsandtakingthemagnitudeuncertaintyintoaccount,Kijko’smethodgivesthemaximumlikelihoodestimationofbvalueandannualactivityrate,whichmightbemorerealistic.Ontheotherhand,thismethodconsidersthesourcezoneboundaryuncertaintyinseismichazardanalysis,whichmeanstheearthquakeactivityrateacrossaboundaryofasourcezonechangessmoothlyinsteadofabruptlyandavoidstoolargeagradientinthecalculatedresults.