简介：Thisarticleconsidersthreatstoaprojectslippingonbudget,scheduleandfit-for-purpose.Threatisusedhereasthecollectiveforrisks(quantifiablebadthingsthatcanhappen)anduncertainties(poorlyornotquantifiablebadpossibleevents).Basedonexperiencewithprojectsindevelopingcountriesthisreviewconsidersthat(a)projectslippageisduetouncertaintiesratherthanrisks,(b)whileeventuationofsomebadthingsisbeyondcontrol,managedexecutionandoversightarestiltheprimarymeanstokeepingwithinbudget,ontimeandfit-for-purpose,(c)improvingprojectdeliveryislessaboutbiggerandmorecomplexandmoreaboutcoordinatedfocus,effectivenessanddevelopingthought-outheuristics,and(d)projectstakelongerandcostmorepartlybecausethreatidentificationisinaccurate,thescopeofidentifiedthreatsistoonarrow,andthethreatassessmentproductisnotintegratedintooverallprojectdecision-makingandexecution.Almostbydefinition,whatispoorlyknownislikelytocauseproblems.Yetitisnotjusttheunquantifiabilityandintangibilityofuncertaintiescausingprojectslippage,butthattheyareinsufficientlytakenintoaccountinprojectplanningandexecutionthatcausebudgetandtimeoverruns.Improvingprojectperformancerequirespurpose-drivenandmanageddeploymentofscarceseasonedprofessionals.Thiscanbeaidedwithindependentoversightbydeeplyexperiencedpanelistswhocontributetechnicalinsightsandcanpotentiallyshowthatdiligenceisseentobedone.

简介：Background:Forestmanagementfacesaclimateinducedshiftingrowthpotentialandincreasingcurrentandemergingnewrisks.Vulnerabilityanalysisprovidesdecisionsupportbasedonprojectionsofnaturalresourcestakingrisksanduncertaintiesintoaccount.Inthispaperwe(1)characterizedifferencesinforestdynamicsunderthreemanagementscenarios,(2)analysetheeffectsofthethreescenariosontworiskfactors,windthrowanddroughtstress,and(3)quantifytheeffectsandtheamountofuncertaintyarisingfromclimateprojectionsonheightincrementanddroughtstress.Methods:InfourregionsinnorthernGermany,weapplythreecontrastingmanagementscenariosandprojectforestdevelopmentunderclimatechangeuntil2070.Threeclimateruns(minimum,median,maximum)basedontheemissionscenarioRCP8.5controlthesite-sensitiveforestgrowthfunctions.Theminimumandmaximumclimaterundefinetherangeofprospectiveclimatedevelopment.Results:Theprojectionsofdifferentmanagementregimesuntil2070showthedivergingmedium-termeffectsofthinningsandharvestsandlong-termeffectsofspeciesconversiononaregionalscale.Examplesofwindthrowvulnerabilityanddroughtstressrevealhowadaptationmeasuresdependontheappliedmanagementpathandthedecision-maker’sriskattitude.Uncertaintyanalysisshowstheincreasingvariabilityofdroughtriskprojectionswithtime.Theeffectofclimateprojectionsonheightgrowtharequantifiedanduncertaintyanalysisrevealsthatheightgrowthofyoungtreesisdominatedbytheage-trendwhereastheclimatesignalinheightincrementofoldertreesisdecisive.Conclusions:Droughtriskisaseriousissueintheeasternregionsindependentoftheappliedsilviculturalscenario,butadaptationmeasuresarelimitedastheproportionofthemostdroughttolerantspeciesScotspineisalreadyhigh.Windthrowriskisnoseriousoverallthreatinanyregion,butadequatecounter-measuressuchasspeciesconversion,speciesmixtureorreductiono