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简介：正如一句俗语，“天有不测风云”，自然灾害贯穿着人类发展的整个进程。面对强大的大自然，我们无法消极逃避，只能努力去面对。我们应该尊重自然、研究自然、掌握规律、趋利避害、力争最大限度地与大自然和谐相处。

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简介：Aftermajornaturaldisasters,suchastherecentearthquake-tsunamieventinSouthAsia,reportsappearaboutthemysteriousabilityofanimalstoanticipateandtoescapetheimpendingdanger.Thisisanopportunitytorecallthelonghistoryofthisphenomenoninthetraditionsofdifferentcivilizations,toevaluateChineseefforts,30-40yearsago,tousethisphenomenonforearthquakeprediction,andtojudgeitsstateofacceptanceinmodernscience.Aneffortismadetointroducethisphenomenonasaresearchfieldofmodernbionics.Thetimingisfavorablesince,increasingly,infraredthermalanomalies,monitoredfromsatellite,suggestinglitho-atmosphericprocesses,arefoundtoprecedeearthquakes.Theywereunexpectedbyseismologistsandareheresuggestedtoessentiallyreflecttheenergyconversionpatternsresponsibleforthesignalsmonitoredbyanimals.Theaimistolearnfromanimalsinthelongtermhownaturaldisasterscanbetterbeanticipated,andhowsimpletechnicalwarningsystemscanbedeveloped.Somechallengesareanalyzed.Oneisinterpretationofthenatureofenergyreleasepriortothemainearthquakedisasterresultingin"macro-anomaly"precursors,anotherisbettertounderstandtheeffectonanimalsenses.Theroleofnon-linearcooperativephenomenaincludingtsunamitypewavesisemphasized.

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简介：BasedonhistoricaldocumentsandrecordsthispaperanalyzesthecharacteristicsoffrequencyanddistributionofmajordisastersthattookplaceinthehistoryofChina.Thefindingsshowthatoccurrencesofdifferenttypesofdisastersvariedandspatialpatternatprovinciallevelaresignificantlydifferentaswell.Theresultsalsoindicatethatthereisastrongrelationshipbetweentypeofdisastersandspatialdistributionandthatthespatialpatternoflosseswasnotthesameasthatofthefrequency.Thereasonsare:(1)thehazard-formativeenvironmentswhich,toalargeextent,determinethespatialpatternofthedisastersaresignificantlydifferent;(2)thelossescausedbynaturaldisasterswerecloselyrelatedtotheconcentrationofeconomyandpopulation.Numberofdeathswasusuallylargeinareaswhereagriculture,cultureandbusinesswererelativelydeveloped.ThespatialpatternofdisasterlossesisanevitableresultofuneveneconomicdevelopmentinthehistoryofChina.

简介：Paprikapepper,asoneofthemainvegetablecrops,isoriginatedinthetropicsandnowwidelyplantedintheworldforitsdietarytherapyandmedicinalfunctions.Foritstypicalphysiologicalpropertiesreferringtolowtolerancestoflood,droughtandcold,paprikapepperoftensuffersfromoneorseveraldisastersduringitsgrowingperiod,especiallyundertropicalclimate.PaprikapepperinHainan,asatypicalregionoftropicalclimateinChina,sustainsflood,chillinganddroughtdisasterrisksinducedbyvariedweathersystems.Thisstudywastodevelopandemployappropriateindicestoassesshazard,sensitivity,vulnerabilityandpreventioncapabilityformajordisastersduringpaprikapeppergrowthperiod,usinglong-termmeteorologicaldatafrom1998to2011,actualdisastersrecordfrom1999to2011,productionandsocioeconomicstatisticsfrom2002to2011at18weatherstations.BasedontheAnalyticHierarchyProcessandEntropymethod,thecombinedweightwasgiventoeachdisasterfactor,thusanintegrateddisasterriskassessmentmodelwasdevelopedandappliedatregionallevel.HighfloodhazardmainlyoccurredineasternHainan,highchillinghazardinnorthandcentralmountainareas,andhighdroughthazardinthewesternpartofHainan.Droughtandchillingsensitivityhadasimilarspatialdistributionwhichdecreasedfromcentraltocoastalregionswhilefloodsensitivitywastheopposite.Highvulnerabilityofthedisastersmainlyoccurredincentralregions,similartolowpreventioncapability.EasternHainansufferedfromhighintegrateddamagerisk.Thepredicteddamageoccurrenceshowedagoodagreementwiththeoccurrenceofactualdisasters.Weconcludedthatanintegrateddamageriskassessmentmodelcouldprovideanewtooltoassessmajormeteorologicaldisastersandhelpfarmersandpolicymakerstoalleviatetherisksofmajormeteorologicaldisastersforpaprikapepper,whichseemsalsosuitableforothercrops.

简介：Theessentialfeatureofagricultureistheinterweave-mentofnaturalreproductionandeconomicreproduction.Inrecentyears,thenaturaldisastershavebecomemorefrequentandbadlyaffecttheproductionmanagementandinvestmentbenefits.Thisproblemhasbeenanimportantriskinmanagingagriculturallistedcompaniesandcannotbeignored.Itisofgreatimportancetoevaluateandpreventtherisksofthenaturaldisasterstoenhancethecompetitiveabilityandincreasetheprofitsofthoselistedcompanies,therebykeepingthesustainabledevelopmentofagri-culturalcompanies.

简介：洪水，干旱，下得很大的冰雹，和在从1949～2012的Xinjiang的低温度事件的数据与散开方法被分析在Xinjiang估计灾难的最普通的类型的风险。学习区域的气象学的灾难的频率和紧张显示出与全球温暖联系的一个增加的趋势，这被证明。在灾难的四种类型之中，超过干旱的概率最大，接着由下得很大的冰雹，低温度和洪水列在后面。而且，小浪方法分析表明自从2000，更大的摆动发生了，它可以与极端气候的变化的出现被联系。频率的空间分发表明Tianshan山的北斜坡是一个多重灾区，Tianshan的南部的斜坡是更多的洪水和下得很大的冰雹发生的区域，并且Turpan-Hami盆的西方是区域风是流行的。在影响灾难的区域和相应气象学、社会经济的索引之间的关系也被分析。它显示除了谷物面积，在影响的区域和最气象学、社会经济的指示物之间有重要积极关联。

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简介：Thispaperconsidersadiscrete-timeGeo/G/1queueinamulti-phaseserviceenvironment,wherethesystemissubjecttodisastrousbreakdowns,causingallpresentcustomerstoleavethesystemsimultaneously.Atafailureepoch,theserverabandonstheserviceandthesystemundergoesarepairperiod.Afterthesystemisrepaired,itjumpstooperativephaseiwithprobabilityqi,i=1,2···,n.Usingthesupplementaryvariabletechnique,weobtainthedistributionforthestationaryqueuelengthatthearbitraryepoch,whicharethenusedforthecomputationofotherperformancemeasures.Inaddition,wederivetheexpectedlengthofacycletime,thegeneratingfunctionofthesojourntimeofanarbitrarycustomer,andthegeneratingfunctionoftheserver’sworkingtimeinacycle.Wealsogivetherelationshipbetweenthediscrete-timequeueingsystemtoitscontinuous-timecounterpart.Finally,someexamplesandnumericalresultsarepresented.

简介：ThispaperintroducestheresponseprocessoftheGansuEarthquakeAgencyduringtheJiuzhaigouMS7.0earthquakeinSichuanProvince,includingearthquakeemergencydisposalprocedures,informationreports,disasterinvestigationandintensityassessment,seismicmonitoringandtrenddetermination,andemergencydissemination.Thispaperrevealsthecharacteristicsofearthquakedamageinthequake-hitareasofGansuProvince,drawssomecorrespondingconclusionsandsummarizesthecountermeasuresforrecoveryandreconstructioninthequake-hitareasofGansuProvince.

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简介：事件以后的反应规划者必须在一扇批评时间窗户以内为资源的合适的分配和分发开发有效、有效的计划到影响区域(IA)。为了决定分发的有效性和效率，计划，这研究探讨资源分配有效性损失(在供应和需求之间的失配在IA引起的RAEL，或损失)，紧急情况后勤时间花费(在紧急情况条件下面的后勤过程的ELTC，或交通时间)。而且，这研究检验分享在不同阶段之中协调资源的特性(FSC)的后续。这研究基于这个人物建议一个综合模型(IM)。这个模型试图最小化RAEL和ELTC。而且，IM联合时间尺寸模型(TDM)，它在计划地平线，和空间尺寸模型(SDM)协调所有阶段的要求和供应，它为第一个阶段产生一个特定的分发计划。一个分析解决方案作为每FSC，SDM通过一个单个目的的线性编程模型在以后被解决的定义为TDM被获得。在有效地解决IM以后，我们发现建议方法论适合紧急情况情形很好。从模型导出的卓见也在结论被介绍。）