简介：AbstractBackground:School closure is a common mitigation strategy during severe influenza epidemics and pandemics. However, the effectiveness of this strategy remains controversial. In this study, we aimed to explore the effectiveness of school closure on seasonal influenza epidemics in provincial-level administrative divisions (PLADs) with varying urbanization rates in China.Methods:This study analyzed influenza surveillance data between 2010 and 2019 provided by the Chinese National Influenza Center. Taking into consideration the climate, this study included a region with 3 adjacent PLADs in Northern China and another region with 4 adjacent PLADs in Southern China. The effect of school closure on influenza transmission was evaluated by the reduction of the effective reproductive number of seasonal influenza during school winter breaks compared with that before school winter breaks. An age-structured Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible (SIRS) model was built to model influenza transmission in different levels of urbanization. Parameters were determined using the surveillance data via robust Bayesian method.Results:Between 2010 and 2019, in the less urbanized provinces: Hebei, Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Anhui, during school winter breaks, the effective reproductive number of seasonal influenza epidemics reduced 14.6% [95% confidential interval (CI): 6.2-22.9%], 9.6% (95% CI: 2.5-16.6%), 7.3% (95% CI: 0.1-14.4%) and 8.2% (95% CI: 1.1-15.3%) respectively. However, in the highly urbanized cities: Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai, it reduced only 5.2% (95% CI: -0.7-11.2%), 4.1% (95% CI: -0.9-9.1%) and 3.9% (95% CI: -1.6-9.4%) respectively. In China, urbanization is associated with decreased proportion of children and increased social contact. According to the SIRS model, both factors could reduce the impact of school closure on seasonal influenza epidemics, and the proportion of children in the population is thought to be the dominant influencing factor.Conclusions:Effectiveness of school closure on the epidemics varies with the age structure in the population and social contact patterns. School closure should be recommended in the low urbanized regions in China in the influenza seasons.

简介：AbstractBackground:China has experienced rapid urbanization in the past 30 years. We aimed to report blood cadmium level (BCL) in the rapidly urbanized Yangtze Plain of China, and explore the association between BCL and 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D).Methods:Our data source was the Survey on Prevalence in East China for Metabolic Diseases and Risk Factors (SPECT-China) cross-sectional study (ChiCTR-ECS-14005052, www.chictr.org). We enrolled 3234 subjects from 12 villages in the Yangtze Plain. BCLs were measured by atomic absorption spectrometry. 25(OH)D was measured with a chemiluminescence assay.Results:A total of 2560 (79.2%) subjects were diagnosed with vitamin D deficiency. The median (interquartile range) BCL was 1.80 μg/L (0.60-3.42) for men and 1.40 μg/L (0.52-3.10) for women. In women, mean 25(OH)D concentrations were inversely associated with BCL (0.401, 95% confidence interval: -0.697 to -0.105 nmol/L lower with each doubling of the BCL) after adjustment for age, educational status, current smoking, body mass index, diabetes, and season. However, there was no significant difference in 25(OH)D across the BCL tertiles for men.Conclusions:BCL in Chinese residents in the Yangtze Plain were much higher than that in developed countries. An inverse association between BCL and 25(OH)D was found in general Chinese women after multivariable adjustment. Future prospective cohort and animal studies are warranted to resolve the direction and temporality of these relationships, and to elucidate the exact mechanisms involved.