简介:近年来大客流对北京地铁的冲击使车站负荷强度不断增大,车站日常运营存在安全隐患,地铁系统逐渐呈现出脆弱性。地铁脆弱性表现为暴露度、易感度和适应度。鉴于地铁脆弱性体系具有层级性、定性定量结合性、多专家决策性、指标灰性等特点,综合运用层次分析法、灰色理论、模糊综合评价以及多专家决策理论,构建群体灰色层次模糊评价法(GGAHP)。基于指标体系评价法,根据现场考察、专家座谈等方式完成大客流扰动对北京地铁安全运营的影响因素识别,通过模糊德尔菲法建立评价指标体系,通过定量分析与定性评价相结合的方法,对北京地铁客流压力较大的典型车站进行脆弱性评价,并对评价结果进行分析总结。
简介:AmethodofreliabilityanalysisbasedonadirectstrengthcalculationemployingthevonMisesstressfailurecriterionispresentedhere.Theshorttermstraindistributionsofshiphullstructuralcomponentsareidentifiedthroughthestatisticalanalysisofthewave-inducedstrainhistoryandthelongtermdistributionsbytheweightedsummationoftheshorttermstraindistributions.Thewave-inducedlongtermstraindistributioniscombinedwiththestillwaterstrain.Theextremestraindistributionoftheresponsestrainisobtainedbystatisticalanalysisofthecombinedstrains.ThelimitstatefunctionofthereliabilityanalysisisbasedonthevonMisesstressfailurecriterion,includingtherelateduncertaintiesduetothequalityofthematerialandmodeluncertainty.ThereliabilityindexiscalculatedusingFORMandsensitivityanalysisofeachvariablethathaseffectsonthereliabilityisalsodiscussed.