简介：ThisisPartⅡofthisseries.ItintroducesthetechniqueforrecognizingMαCSphasedpropertiesanditsprecipitationcenterorcentersbymeansofdynamicdigitalizedcloudmapsandpresentstheassessmentoftheeffectivenessofthemodelproposedinPartⅠastoitsfittingandforecastingaccuracy.

简介：Basedontheexistingland-surfaceschemesandmodels,animprovedLand-surfaceProcessModel(LPM-ZD)hasbeendeveloped.Ithasthefollowingmajorcharacteristics:(1)Thecombinationofphysicalequationsandempiricalanalyticalformulaeareusedtoconstructthegoverningequationsofsoiltemperatureandmoisture.Higherresolutionofmodellevelandphysicalequationsareadoptedfortheuppersoillayers,andforthelowersoillayers,lowerresolutionofmodellevelisadoptedandempiricalanalyticalformulaeareused.(2)Inlandsurfacehydrologicalprocess,thesub-griddistributionofrainfallanditseffectsaretakenintoaccount.(3)Asimplesnowcoversubmodelhasbeenused,whichincludeseffectsofsnowcoveronsoilthermodynamicsandhydrology,aswellasalbedo.Byuseofthismodelandthreegroupsofpointobservationdata,aseriesof“off-line”testshavebeencarriedout.Thesimulationresultsindicatethatland-surfaceprocessmodelhasgoodperformanceandcanwellsimulatediurnalandseasonalvariationoflandsurfaceprocessesformanykindsoflandsurfacecovers(forest,grass,cropsanddesert)indifferentclimatezone.Theresultssimulatedbythemodelareconsistentwiththeobservations.Later,byuseofonegroupofobservationdataandthemodel,aseriesofsensitivityexperimentshavebeendone.Itisshownthatthemodelismuchsensitivetosomeparameters,suchasinitialsoilmoisture,vegetationphysicalparametersaswellastheproportionofthegridcoveredwithrain.Thereforeitismuchimportantforland-surfaceprocessmodeltodefinetheseparametersasaccuratelyaspossible.

简介：ThedistributionofmonthlymeanerrorofNMCmodelforecastsanditsseasonalvariationareinvesti-gated.Theratioofmonthlymeanerrortostandarddeviationisusedheretofindoutthattheregionwhereacorrectionofsystematicerrorisneededandappropriateismainlyinlowlatitudes.Theimprovement,afterthemodel’sverticalresolutionandsomephysicalparameterswerechangedfromApril1985,isinvestigated,andtheNMCoperationalmodelforecastshavealsocomparedwiththoseofECMWF.

简介：Modifiedrefractivity(M)profileisanimportantparametertodescribetheatmosphericrefractionenvironment,aswellasakeyfactorinuniquelyevaluatingelectromagneticpropagationeffects.Inordertoimprovethemodel-derivedMprofileinstable(especiallyverystable)conditions,threenonlinearsimilarityfunctions,namelyBH91,CB05,SHEBA07,areintroducedinthispapertoimprovetheoriginalBabin_V25model,andtheperformancesofthesemodifiedmodelsareverifiedbasedonthehydrometeorologicalobservationsfromtowerplatforms,whicharefinallycomparedwiththeoriginalBabin_V25modelandLocal_HYQ92model.Resultsshowthatintroducingnonlinearsimilarityfunctionscansignificantlyimprovethemodel-derivedMprofile;especially,thenewlydevelopedSHEBA07functionsmanagetoreducethepredictedrootmeansquare(rms)differencesofMandMslope(forboth0-5mand5-40m)by64.5%,16.6%,and60.4%,respectivelyinstableconditions.Unfortunately,thisimprovedmethodreactslittleontheevaporationductheight;incontrast,Local_HYQ92modeliscapableofreducingthepredictedrmsdifferencesofM,Mslope(forboth0-5mand5-40m),andevaporationductheightby76.7%,40.2%,83.7%,and58.0%respectively.Finally,anewrecommendationismadetoapplyLocal_HYQ92andBabin_SHEBA07inverystableconditionsconsideringthatMslopeismoreimportantthanevaporationductheightandabsoluteMvalueinuniquelydeterminingelectromagneticpropagationeffects.

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简介：TheSimplifiedSimpleBiospheremodel(SSiB)isvalidatedinoff-linesimulationsagainstfieldmeasurementsinthesummerof2001fromtheChinaHeavyRainfallExperimentandStudy(CHeRES)overagrasslandsitelocatedinthelowerreachesoftheYangtzeRiver.Wheninitializedanddrivenbytheobservedatmosphericforcing,themodelreproducedtheobservedsurfaceheatfluxesandsurfaceskintemperaturerealistically.Themodelwasalsoabletowellsimulatethevariationofsoilwatercontent.Thesensitivityexperimentsfoundthattheleafreflectancewasthemostsignificantparameterinimprovingtheestimationofsurfacealbedoduringbothwetanddryperiods.Thisstudysuggeststhatthemodeliscapableofsimulatingthephysicalprocessesandofassessingtheimpactofbiophysicalparametersthatrelatetoland-atmosphereinteractionsovertheeasternAsianmonsoonregions,whichiscrucialformesoscaleatmosphericmodels.

简介：Athree-dimensionalcloud-scalemodelhasbeendesigned.Thegoverningequationsofthemodelarecomposedoftwogroupsofequations:onegroupincludescompressiblemotionequations,continuityequation,pressureequationandthermodynamicequation,whichareofEuleriantype,andtheotherconsistsofcloud-precipitationmicrophysicsequationswhichareofLagrangiantype.Sincethedegreeofinfluenceofsoundwaveontheairmotionisquitedifferentfromthatonthetemperatureorhydrometeors,thetimesplittingprocedureisusedinsolvinggoverningequations.Bothunstaggeredandstaggeredmesheshavebeenutilized.Integra-tionschemesadoptedaretheEulerianbackwarddifferencemethodfortheunstaggeredmeshandsemi-implicitmethodforstaggeredmesh.Severalexperimentsofmodellinghavebeenconductedandareasonablethree-dimensionalimageofdeepconvectionisobtained.Withthismodelthehorizontalandverticalvortexcircula-tionsaresimulated.Furthermore,theeffectsofhorizontalvortexontheformationanddevelopmentofdowndraftwithincloudhavealsobeenstudied.

简介：彭永清，严绍谨，王同美ＡＮｏｎｌｉｎｅａｒＴｉｍｅ－ｌａｇＤｉｆｆｅｒｅｎｔｉａｌＥｑｕａｔｉｏｎＭｄｅｌｆｏｒＰｒｅｄｉｃｔｉｎｇＭｏｎｔｈｌｙＰｒｅｃｉｐｉｔａｔｉｏｎ￥ＰｅｎｓＹｏｎｓｑｉｎｇ；ＹａｎＳｈａｏｊｉｎａｎｄＷａｎｇＴｏｎｇｍｅｉ（...

简介：ClimateeffectsoflandusechangeinChinaassimulatedbyaregionalclimatemodel(RegCM2)areinvestigated.Themodelisnestedinone-waymodewithinaglobalcoupledatmosphere-oceanmodel(CSIROR21L9AOGCM).Twomulti-yearsimulations,onewithcurrentlanduseandtheotherwithpotentialvegetationcover,areconducted.Statisticallysignificantchangesofprecipitation,surfaceairtemperature,anddailymaximumanddailyminimumtemperatureareanalyzedbasedonthedifferencebetweenthetwosimulations.ThesimulatedeffectsoflandusechangeoverChinaincludeadecreaseofmeanannualprecipitationoverNorthwestChina,aregionwithaprevalenceofaridandsemi-aridareas;anincreaseofmeanannualsurfaoeairtemperatureoversomeareas;andadecreaseoftemperaturealongcoastalareas.Summermeandailymaximumtemperatureincreasesinmanylocations,whilewintermeandailyminimumtemperaturedecreasesinEastChinaandincreasesinNorthwestChina.TheuppersoilmoisturedecreasessignificantlyacrossChina.Theresultsindicatethatthesamelandusechangemaycausedifferentclimateeffectsindifferentregionsdependingonthesurroundingenvironmentandclimatecharacteristics.

简介：Threenumericalexperimentshavebeencarriedoutbyusingaspectralbarotropicprimitiveequationmo-del.Itisfoundthattheresultsobtainedarequitesimilartothosewiththebarotropicfilteredmodel.Themainresultsreadasfollows:(1)Inthecasewithsymmetricorographyorwithoutorography,ifthemotionissymmetric(withre-specttotheequator,thesameistruehereafter)attheinitialinstant,thenitwouldbesymmetricafterwards.(2)Theantisymmetricorographydistributioncouldcauseantisymmetricmotion,andtheoriginalsym-metricmotionmightbecomeasymmetric.Inordertoexplaintheaboveresults,ithasbeenprovedthattheyaretheoreticallyvalid.Anditisfoundthatifthemotionisantisymmetricattheinitialinstant,thenitwouldbecomeasymmetric.Therefore,nopureantisymmetricmotioncouldbemaintained.

简介：Basedonfullconsiderationofthewinterwheatbiologicalcharacters,anagrometeorologicalmodelofphysiologicalthermalindexofwinterwheatincludingvernalizationandphotoperiodresponseisestablished,inwhichtheinfluenceofdiurnalvariationoftemperature,effectivetemperatureanddaylengthonthedevelopmentofwinterwheatduringtheperiodfromemergencetoelongationarecomprehensivelyconsidered.ValidationofthemodelusingthedatatakenfromtheexperimentsofwheatecologyinChinashowsthatthemodelbehaveswellwithmeanerrorlessthan3days.

简介：UsingNCEPreanalysisdataandanairflowtrajectorymodelbasedontheLagrangianmethod,theHybridSingle-ParticleLagrangianIntegratedTrajectory(HYSPLIT)model,thedailybackwardtrajectoriesontheheightof850hPaabovetheSouthChinaSea(SCS)areaaresimulatedfromApriltoJune.TheonsetdateoftheSCSsummermonsoonfrom1948to2009isdeterminedaccordingtothesimulatedsourceofairflowinthemonitoredareaoftheSCS.ByanalyzingtheSCSmonsoononsetdatesoverthe62years,wefoundthatthenumberofyearsinwhichtheSCSmonsoononsetisearlieraccountsfor13%,andthelateryears14%,thenormalyears73%,ofallthe62years.AnalyseswiththeLagrangianmethod,doneincomparisonwiththeothertwomethodswhichcombinewindandpotentialpseudo-equivalenttemperature,wereperformedtodeterminetheonsetdatesoftheSCSsummermonsoon.Insomeyears,thesourceofthesouthwestairflowinthemonitoredareaoftheSCSisinthesubtropicalregionbeforetheonsetoftheSCSmonsoon,sotheairflowfromthesubtropicscanbedistinguishedwiththeairflowfromthetropicsbyusingtheLagrangianmethod.Thesimulationbythetrajectorymodelindicatedthatinsomeyears,aftertheonsetofSCSsummermonsoon,theSCSwillbecontrolledbythesoutheastwindinsteadofthesouthwesterlyusuallyexpected.

简介：Athree-dimensional(3D)globaladiabaticspectralprimitiveequationmodelhasbeendesigned.Themainfeaturesareasfollows.(1)AdoptionofsphericalharmonicsandTschebyscheffpolynomialsasthebasisfunctionsinthehorizontalandverticalrespectively,buttheunknownsinthespectralequationsaretwo-dimensional;(2)Inclusionofthetropopause,whichmayvarywithtimeandspace;(3)Suggestionofaspectralmethodforrepresentingtheverticalstructureoftheatmosphereapplicabletotheunsmoothedprofilecase;(4)Inconsiderationofnonlinearverticalaliasingatechniqueisproposedtoavoiditandnonlinearcomputationalinstability.Basedonrealdataforecastsupto48hourshavebeenperformed.TheresultsshowthatthestatisticalverificationswiththemodelaresuperiorontheaveragetothosewiththeT42L9usedoperationallybefore1995atNMCofChinaatthesamemeanresolution.

简介：Thedynamicalframeworkofthenine-levelversionoftheIAPAGCMispresentedinthispaper.Theemphasisofthemodel’sdescriptionisputonthefollowingtwoaspects:(1)Amodel’sstandardatmosphere,whichisasatisfactoryapproximationtotheobservedtroposphereandlowerstratospherestandardatmosphere,isintroducedintotheequationsofthemodeltopermitamoreaccuratecalculationoftheverticaltransportterms,especiallynearthetropopause;(2)Theverticallevelsofthemodelarecarefullyselectedtoguaranteeasmoothdependenceoflayerthicknessuponpressureinordertoreducethetruncationerrorinvolvedintheunequalintervalverticalfinite-differencing.Fortestingthemodel,twokindsoflinearbaroclinicRossby-Haurwitzwaves,oneofwhichhasadynamicallystableverticalstructureandtheotherhasarelativelyunstableone,areconstructedtoprovideinitialconditionsfornumericalexperiments.Thetwowaveshavebeenintegratedformorethan300daysand100daysre

简介：Thepropagationfeatures,stabilitiesanddynamicalcharacteristicstructuresofcoupledKelvininnermodesandsecondorderRossbyinnermodesarestudiedusingasimpletropicalcoupledair-seamodelinthispaper.Itisshownthatthereismechanismofselectingscaleandfrequencyinthetropicalair-seasystem.Theeffectsofair-seacouplingaremainlyonthelarge-scalemodesandnonuniform.TheseeffectsmakethefrequencyofKelvinmodesdecreaseandevenexcitetheeastwardpropagatingRossbyinnermodes.TheseeffectsmaketheunstabledevelopmentofKelvinmodesandresultinthedecayofRossbymodes.Theeffectsofatmosphericdampareoppositetothoseofair-seacoup-ling.Theoceanicdamponlymakethewaveamplitudesdecay.Simutaneously,thispapershowsthedynamicalcharacter-isticstructuresofair-seacoupledsystemandthephaserelationsbetweentheatmosphericandtheoceanicwavecompo-nent.

简介：严绍瑾，彭永清，郭光ＮｅｕｒｏｉｄＢＰ－ｔｙｐｅＭｏｄｅｌＡｐｐｌｉｅｄｔｏｔｈｅＳｔｕｄｙｏｆＭｏｎｔｈｌｙＲａｉｎｆａｌｌＦｏｒｅｃａｓｔｉｎｇ￥ＹａｎＳｈａｏｊｉｎ；ＰｅｎｇＹｏｎｇｑｉｎｇａｎｄＧｕｏｇｕａｎｇ（ＮａｎｊｉｎｇＩｎｓｔｉｔｕｔ...

简介：IPCC的几个情形实验第4评价报告(AR4)被在大气的物理的研究所开发的一个灵活联合Ocean-Atmosphere-Land系统模型(FGOALS)的版本g1.0执行，中国科学院(IAP/CAS)包括“第20世纪实验的气候”，“1%每年增加到加倍实验的公司2”和二分开的IPCC温室气体排放情形A1B和B1实验。为了在气候上在自然变化和人的活动的不同影响之间区分，变化，三成员的整体跑为每个情形实验被执行。联合模型模拟出现：(1)从1900～2000，全球吝啬的温度增加大约0.5°C，主要增加发生在第20世纪的以后的一半期间，它在与加亮联合模型的能力自从工业革命，复制气候变化的观察一致；(2)全球吝啬的表面空气温度在分别地在A1B和B1情形加倍实验和1.5°C和2.4°C的CO2增加大约1.6°C。全球温暖被在深海洋的表面温度和降水而且温度增加的变化显示不仅。海水的热扩大将导致全球吝啬的海水平的上升。控制跑和运用的第20世纪气候变化与FGOALS，寒冷在高纬度在偏导的版本g1.1再被执行被移开。他们当时与从FGOALS的版本g1.0的那些相比以便在全球温暖的模拟上区分模型偏爱的效果。

简介：Ensembleforecastingoftropicalcyclone(TC)motionwasstudiedusingaprimitiveequationbarotropicmodelbyperturbinginitialpositionandstructurefor1979-1993TC.TheresultsshowthatTCinitialpositionperturbationaffectsitstrack,buttheensemblemeanisclosetocontrolforecast.ExperimentswasalsoperformedbyperturbingTCinitialparameterswhichwereusedtogenerateTCinitialfield,andmoreimprovementcanbeobtainedbytakingensemblemeanofselectivememberthanselectingmembersrandomly.Theskillof60%-70%ofallcasesisimprovedinselectiveensemblemean.Whentheambientsteeringcurrentisweak,moreimprovementcanbeobtainedoverthecontrolforecast.

简介：Addressingthedifficultiesofscatteredandsparseobservationaldatainoceanscience,anewinterpolationtechniquebasedoninformationdiffusionisproposedinthispaper.Basedonafuzzymappingidea,sparsedatasamplesarediffusedandmappedintocorrespondingfuzzysetsintheformofprobabilityinaninterpolationellipsemodel.Toavoidtheshortcomingofnormaldiffusionfunctionontheasymmetricstructure,akindofasymmetricinformationdiffusionfunctionisdevelopedandacorrespondingalgorithm-ellipsemodelfordiffusionofasymmetricinformationisestablished.ThroughinterpolationexperimentsandcontrastanalysisoftheseasurfacetemperaturedatawithARGOdata,therationalityandvalidityoftheellipsemodelareassessed.

简介：大气红外线更健全(表情)在水卫星上的仪器是高光谱分辨率infrared更健全。在最近的年里，表情逐渐地成为了大气的垂直观察的主要方法。在中国上检验表情检索产品(V3.0)的确认，表情表面气温检索与分别地在2004年7月和2005年1月从540个气象学的车站获得的扎根的观察相比。错误的来源更加被讨论。基于错误分析，检索的表情出现气温产品systemi-cally被改正。而且，表情温度和湿度侧面检索与T213相比数字预报产品。因为T213forecasting产品不是实际大气的状态，侧面产品通过用肘轻推的分析被吸收进一步验证确认，表情温度和湿度进MM5模型。在这篇论文，盒子在2005年2月14日详细在诺思中国被模仿。然后，我们在降雪，湿度地，垂直速度地，分叉地，和云上调查了表情检索的效果微物理过程。主要结果是：(1)检索的表情的错误出现气温产品大部分是系统的偏差，地面高度的影响和表面类型为是主要原因；(2)表情大气的侧面检索和T213之间的差别在温度的数字预言产品通常是不到2K，在相对湿度的差别通常是不到25%；并且(3)表情温度和湿度检索产品能调整模型起始回答，并且能因此改进降雪模拟的能力到某程度。