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105 个结果
  • 简介:StormsthatoccurattheBayofBengal(BoB)areofabimodalpattern,whichisdifferentfromthatoftheotherseaareas.ByusingtheNCEP,SSTandJTWCdata,thecausesofthebimodalpatternstormactivityoftheBoBarediagnosedandanalyzedinthispaper.TheresultshowsthattheseasonalvariationofgeneralatmospherecirculationinEastAsiahasaregulatingandcontrollingimpactontheBoBstormactivity,andthe'bimodalperiod'ofthestormactivitycorrespondsexactlytotheseasonalconversionperiodofatmosphericcirculation.Theminorwindspeedofshearspringandautumncontributedtothestorm,whichwasacrucialfactorforthegenerationandoccurrenceofthe'bimodalpattern'stormactivityintheBoB.Theanalysisonseasurfacetemperature(SST)showsthattheSSTsofalltheyeararoundintheBoBareameettheconditionsrequiredforthegenerationoftropicalcyclones(TCs).However,theSSTsinthecentralareaofthebayarehigherthanthatofthesurroundingareasinspringandautumn,whichfacilitatestheoccurrenceofa'two-peak'stormactivitypattern.Thegenesispotentialindex(GPI)quantifiesandreflectstheenvironmentalconditionsforthegenerationoftheBoBstorms.ForGPI,theintenselow-levelvortexdisturbanceinthetroposphereandhigh-humidityatmospherearethesufficientconditionsforstorms,whilelargemaximumwindvelocityofthegroundvortexradiusandsmallverticalwindsheararethenecessaryconditionsofstorms.

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  • 简介:Basedonthe1951-2007thunderstormsinJiangsu,astudyisconductedfortheirclimatetrends,periodicity,spatiotemporalpatterns,andthedistributionsofthefirstandlastdaysofthethunderstormsatdifferentguaranteerates(GRs)usingclimatetendencyrate,waveletanalysis,andGRfordiagnosis.Resultssuggestthattheinter-annualnumberofthunderstormdays(TSDs)exhibitsadecreasingtrendinthisprovince.ThetrendisdisplayedmainlyinthedecreasingTSDnumberinsummerandautumnexceptinspring,whenthevariationisnotsignificantinthestudyperiod.Inthisprovince,theTSDnumberdeclinesby~2daysper10years.Onaninter-annualbasis,thepronouncedpositivedeparturesofthenumbertakeplacechieflyintheearly1960s,thelate1960stotheearly-mid-1970s,thelate1980s,andthelate1990scomparedwiththenegativeanomaliesdominantinthelate1970stothemid-1980s,themid-to-late-1990s,andthelate1990sto2007.TherearevastdifferencesintheinitialandendingdaysatdiverseGRsindifferentareasoftheprovince.At50%GR,theearliest(last)daysoccurfrommid-MarchtoearlyApril(earlytolateSeptember)whileat80%GR,theinitial(last)daysarefromlateMarchtoearlyMay(earlytolateOctober).Forthedistributionofperiods,theperiods>8-10yearsarerelativelystablefortheentireprovince.Basedon1951-2007periodanalysis,theregionnorth(south)oftheHuaiheRiverexperiencesTSDsless(more)thannormaldaysinrecentyears.

  • 标签: 雷雨 气候趋势,小浪分析,保证率,起始、结束的天
  • 简介:空间变化并且日报在Qiongzhou海峡上的海表面风的变化在一条渡船上从自动气象站用验证数据集被描述,鼓励,并且在coast.Results上如下:(1)平均,海表面风速度比在沿海的area.Sea表面风8.0m/s以上加速的是在Qiongzhou海峡上更大的3-4m/s(在博福特规模五上)在沿海的区域与在Qiongzhou海峡(2)阵风的表面上更大的速度5-6m/s被联系当风速度是相等的放大五以上时,平均阵风系数是大约1.35.(3)在秋天和冬季,日报平均的风的差别在海峡上加速并且弯屈一致性是在沿海的区域的不到那些;什么时候弯屈速度,是10.8m/s(规模六)以上,日报当风一致性为海峡和海岸增加时,平均的风速度的差别减少。

  • 标签: Qiongzhou 海峡 海表面风 观察分析 统计特征
  • 简介:Accordingtothecharacteristicsofsodarecho,aclassifiedmethodfortemperaturestratificationisgiven.ByusingsodardataobservedinYanshanMountainareainBeijing,thestatisticalcharacteristicsfortheheightofinversionlayer,thermalplume,andthedepthofmixedlayerarecompared.Finally,theappearancefrequencyforstable,unstableandneutralstratificationisanalyzed.

  • 标签: STRATIFICATION inversion turbulent weather Probability averaged
  • 简介:作为由森林影响降水的输入和使用的主要因素之一,降雨也在在华盖上粗野降水划分上有差别,在硫和水骑车进程的水数量的平衡。鉴于定义itspoorly与除了它的内陆地点的明确的干燥、湿的咒语相对照的四个季节,降水特征和趋势的理解为本地林地水文学上的学习是重要的。相关研究被记录了,但是很少处理了多重时间规模在时时,每天每月、年度的间隔。与1992-2003,在Menglun,分析的Xishuangbannan,它的特征和趋势的降水的自动记录被总结在林地水文学上在学习帮助。

  • 标签: 西双版纳 梅雨 线性倾向 西南地区
  • 简介:WestatisticallyanalyzethetropicaltyphoonformingintheSouthChinaSeaanduseTC(TropicalCyclone)forshortinthefollowing)bytyphoonyearbook.Thetyphoonquantityisverydifferentindifferentmonthsandyears.TCappearsinallmonthsexceptMarch,andthemostTCquantityinayearis11,theleastis1and6.2onaverage.ThemostTCquantityinamonthis5andtheleastis0.TClandsmostinAugustandnoTClandsonChinesecontinentfromDecembertothefollowingApril.TheprimarylandingareaisbetweenShantouandHainanIsland.ThesustainingperiodofTCisusuallybetween4daysto7days,andthelongestis19days.Only15%oftheTCformingintheSouthChinaSeacanintensifytotyphoon,andtheyallformintheoceanareadeeperthan150m.TheSouthChinaSeaistheoceanareaoverwhichtheTCoccursfrequently.

  • 标签: 中国 南海 台风 微波分析
  • 简介:与大约2个小时的时期,高周波的摆动被把小浪分析用于首先识别详细地绕热带气旋(TC)的眼睛和eyewall观察了风速度。台风Hagupit(2008)的模型模拟的分析证明摆动也在eyewall附近发生在TC紧张,垂直运动,集中活动和空气密度。在这些变量的摆动的序列跟随某个顺序。

  • 标签: 高频振荡 热带气旋 识别 小波分析 模型仿真 垂直运动
  • 简介:Aheavyrainfallassociatedwiththedeepeningofamonsoondepressionhappenedinthesummerof2005.Thisprocesswasfirstdiagnosticallyanalyzedandthe3Dstructureofthemonsoondepressionwasdiscussed,thenthisstructurewascomparedwiththoseofthemonsoondepressioninSouthAsiaandthelowvortexintheMeiyufront.TheresultsshowedthattheheavyrainfalldirectlyresultedfromamonsoondepressioninSouthChina,andthelarge-scaleenvironmentprovidedafavorablebackgroundforthedeepeningofthemonsoondepression.The3Dstructureofthemonsoondepressionwasasfollows.Inthehorizontaldirection,thereexistedaconvectivecloudbandtothesouthofthemonsoondepression,whichlayinaconvectivelyinstablearea,witharelativelystrongascendingmotioninthemidandlowlevelsofthetroposphere,andtheascendingmotionmatchedwellwithamoisttongue,aconvergencearea,andabandofpositivevorticityinthemidandlowlevelsofthetroposphere.Intheverticaldirection,thedepressionhadanobviouslycycloniccirculationinthemidandlowlevelsofthetroposphere,butnocirculationfromabove300hPa.Themonsoondepressioncorrespondedtoconvergenceandpositivevorticityinthelowlevels,buttodivergenceandnegativevorticityintheupperlevels.Theupwarddraftofthedepressioncouldreachtheupperlevelsofthetroposphereinthewestofthedepression,whilethedescendingmotionlayintheeast.Therewasalow-leveljettothesouthofthedepression,whiletheupper-leveljetwasnotobvious.Thedepressionwasverticallywarmintheupperlevelsandcoldinthelowlevels,andtheaxisofthedepressiontiltedsoutheastwardwithheight,whosecharacteristicsweredifferentnotonlyfromthemonsoondepressioninSouthAsiabutalsofromthelowvortexintheMeiyufront.

  • 标签: 季风气候区域 大雨量 中国南方 结构性分析
  • 简介:从Baiyangdian异构的田间试验收集的热流动数据用脚印方法被分析。高分辨率(25m)Landsat-5卫星成像被用来作为四种表面类型之一决定土地覆盖:农田,湖,沼泽地,或村庄。从在2005年9月的二个观察地点的数据被使用。一个地点(Wangjiazhai)被高度异构的表面在Baiyangdian的中央区域描绘:湖/沼泽地。另外的地点(Xiongxian)在有更多的一致表面盖子的土地上。一个改进Eulerian分析流动脚印模型被用来决定“在从包围混合表面类型的风景在每个地点定位的塔测量的热流动的来源区域”。在相对术语,结果证明沼泽地和湖区域通常在Wangjiazhai最作出贡献到观察的热流动,当农田在Xiongxian贡献了大多数时。给表面类型贡献的真实分布,计算被做从湖,沼泽地和农田获得热流动的大小到观察流动和每表面的分配贡献打到理智、潜伏的热流动的总数。结果平均显示出那从沼泽地和农田的可感热流动是可比较的在上日报周期,当从农田的潜伏的热流动在白天期间由大约3050Wm−2是有点更大的时。分别地,从在白天的湖来源的潜伏、理智的流动比从沼泽地和农田少些是大约50Wm−2和100Wm−2。结果被判定合理并且服务在异构的表面上为流动分配表明潜力。

  • 标签: 热通量 欧拉分析模型 大气科学 陆地表面
  • 简介:Basedontheobserved2-yeartemperaturedataforfourkindsoftypicalurbanunderlyingsurfaces,includingasphalt,cement,barelandandgrassland,theannualvariationsandinfluencingfactorsoflandsurfacetemperatureareanalyzed.Thenfittingequationsforsurfacetemperatureareestablished.Itisshownthattheannualvariationofdailyaverage,maximumandminimumtemperatureanddailytemperaturerangeonthefoururbanunderlyingsurfacesisconsistentwiththechangeinairtemperature.Thedifferenceoftemperatureondifferentunderlyingsurfacesinthesummerhalfyear(MaytoOctober)ismuchmoreevidentthanthatinthewinterhalfyear(DecembertothefollowingApril).Thedailyaverageandmaximumtemperaturesofasphalt,cement,barelandandgrasslandarehigherthanairtemperatureduetotheatmosphericheatinginthedaytime,withthatofasphaltbeingthehighest,followedinturnbycement,barelandandgrassland.Moreover,thedailyaverage,maximumandminimumtemperatureonthefoururbanunderlyingsurfacesarestronglyimpactedbytotalcloudamount,dailyaveragerelativehumidityandsunshinehours.Thelandsurfacecanbecooled(warmed)byincreasedtotalcloudamount(relativehumidity).Thechangesintemperatureonbarelandandgrasslandareinfluencedbyboththetotalcloudamountandthedailyaveragerelativehumidity.Thetemperatureparametersofthefourlandsurfacesaresignificantlycorrelatedwithdailyaverage,maximumandminimumtemperature,sunshinehours,dailyaveragerelativehumidityandtotalcloudamount,respectively.Theanalysisalsoindicatesthattherangeoffittingparameterofalinearregressionequationbetweenthesurfacetemperatureofthefourkindsoftypicallandsurfaceandtheairtemperatureisfrom0.809to0.971,passingtheF-testwithaconfidencelevelof0.99.

  • 标签: FITTING ANALYSIS URBAN UNDERLYING SURFACE land
  • 简介:这研究在由使用实验直角的功能(文件结束)发生在东方亚洲夏天的500hPa检验波浪火车分析作为一个诊断工具,结果如下被总结:(1)从鄂霍次克海的海的在上游的区域发源到副热带的区域的一个波浪火车模式(OKJ模式)能在早、中间的summer.TheOKJ显示它的强壮的信号模式清楚地在欧亚大陆在第一个文件结束部件被认出(2)从Phi发源的另外的波浪火车模式

  • 标签: 挥动火车 东方亚洲夏天 文件结束分析 TELECONNECTION 500 hPa
  • 简介:在广东省的自动气象站的格子数据,海军的研究实验室的卫星产品,常规气象学的数据和观察的NCEP全球数据吸收系统分析和环境条件被使用,大气的循环,并且在南部的中国诊断热带气旋Higos的增强的原因和机制的物理特征。结果显示出那高温度的有利环境条件,内在的表面的湿度,强壮的上面的分叉,弱垂直的风砍,并且在南部的Higos旁边的一条西南喷气溪流是的persistenceof贡献了紧张的themaintenance和Higos的重新增强的必要成分。从更低的对流层的冷空气的下沉侵入是为它在土地上的增强的批评条件。弱冷空气引起的正面的开始增加了更低的tropospheric集中并且直焰,并且潜伏的热由大雨释放了的冷凝作用支持了集中。从这个积极反馈过程,Higos获得了一增加积极涡度并且在土地上重新加强。重新增强对风和压力而且到它的温暖的核心的同时的热身运动的减小的逐渐增加到期不仅。

  • 标签: Higos 在土地上的增强 冷空气 温暖的核心
  • 简介:在在多重线性回归(MLR)之间的季节的降水预报技巧的差别的调查整体并且简单多,模型整体平均数(他们)基于单个模型的预报质量。在以前的研究的差别的可能的原因被分析。以便做学习区域的模拟能力相对一致,有不同时间的关联系数的三个区域为这研究被选择。结果证明导致MLR途径的无能力的原因在不同区域之中变化。在Niño3.4区域,在单个模型以内的强壮的合作线性通常是主要原因。在高纬度区域,然而,没有重要合作线性能在单身的模型的单个模型,而是能力被发现是那么差的它在这个区域为超级整体预报使MLR来临不恰当。另外,当我们比较源于的结果时,注意各种各样的分数大小的使用能导致一些差异是重要的不同多为整体途径建模。

  • 标签: 多元线性回归方法 多模式 组合分析 平均数 国土资源部 集合预报
  • 简介:在南部的中国把降水和每月的温度数据基于每天,在南部的中国的冬季极端降水变化被使用Mann-Kendall测试和概括Pareto分发的返回值调查了。结果证明在南部的中国的一场冬季气候大祸在1991附近发生了,并且冬季极端降水的紧张在温暖的气候以后被加强。在温暖的气候前后的异常发行量特征被为大气的研究分析数据的环境预言/公民中心使用美国国家中心进一步分析。在东亚上的热带冬季季风否定地在东南的中国与降水被相关,这被发现。在气候温暖以后,在中间、高的纬度的发行量的meridionality从北方增加空气,它为寒冷的向南方的运动是有利的。另外,在南部的中国上的温度的增加可以导致在大陆和海洋之间的微分加热的减少。因而,在东亚上的热带冬季季风被削弱,它为到东南的中国和潮湿流动的异常集中的形成的温暖、潮湿的空气的运输是有利的,导致在东南的中国上的大降水。作为结果,在在在温暖的气候以后的中间、高的纬度和更低的纬度的异常发行量之间的相互作用在东南的中国上在冬季降水紧张的增加起一个主要作用。

  • 标签: 气候变暖 冬季气候 中国南方 降水事件 背景分析 广义PARETO分布
  • 简介:这篇论文澄清单个价值分解分析(SVD)的显著性检验的本质,并且为测试SVD的联合模式的意义调查四条规则,包括平行分析,非参量自举,随机阶段的测试,和说出的一条新规则修改了平行分析。一个数字实验被进行到份量上在判定SVD的acoupled模式是否作为象样品尺寸,格子点的数字,和signal-to-noise比率那样的参数重要比较四条规则的表演变化。四条规则与格子点的数字的更低的比率更好执行到的结果表演取样尺寸。修改平行分析并且非参量自举最好表现放弃假联合模式,而是后者当样品尺寸不比格子点的数字大得多时,比前者好保留重要联合模式。仅仅当(1)在格子点的观察是时,平行分析和随机阶段的测试是柔韧的放弃假联合模式空间地uncorrelated,或(2)联合信号为平行分析是很强壮的并且不为随机阶段的测试是弱的。影响测试规则的精确性的原因被讨论。

  • 标签: 奇异值分解分析 耦合模式 显著性检验 相互比较
  • 简介:OutgoingLongwaveRadiation(OLR)hasbeenshowntoplayanimportantroleinclimaticdiagnosisandlong-termpredictionandresearch.WiththeOLRdata1974~1997asobservedbysatellites,thecharacteristicsarecomputed.TheresultsareusedtodepictthelocationandintensityofthesubtropicalhighinthestudyoftherelationshipbetweentheannualfrequencyoftropicalcyclonesaffectingtheFujianprovinceandITCZ/subtropicalhigh.Itisshownthatinyearsoffewer(more)tropicalcyclones,theITCZissouthward(northward)locatedwithweaker(stronger)intensity,andthesubtropicalhighissouthward(northward).AsshownintherelationshipbetweentheanomalousyearsoftropicalcyclonesandcharacteristicsofprecedingOLRfields,theOLRanomaliesarejustoppositelydistributedinthePacificOceanforyearsofmore(fewer)tropicalcyclones.Inotherwords,theyearsoffewer(more)tropicalcyclonesareassociatedwithpositiveanomaliesofOLRinthetropicalwestPacificbutnegative(positive)anomaliesintheequatorialcentralandeasternPacific.Itishopedthatourstudybesettingfoundationforshort-termclimatologicalpredictionoftropicalcyclones.

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  • 简介:BystatisticalresearchontheoccurrencepatternofsevereconvectiveweatherinJiangsuprovinceundertheinfluenceoftropicalcycloneswithina10-yearperiod(from2001to2010),thispaperdiscoversthatamongdifferentsevereconvectiveweather,theoccurrencefrequencyofshort-rangeheavyprecipitationisthehighest,thunderstormsandgalescomeinsecond,andgeneralthunderstormsrarelyhappen,whilehailstormsandtornadoesneveroccur.Thestatisticalresultsalsoshowedthatwithintheresearchperiodthereare21tropicalcyclones(TCs)affectingtheJiangsuareaandmostofthemareinthestageofweakeningtotropicaldepressions.Moreover,throughstudyingindicesforrelevantcasesofsevereconvection,itisdiscoveredthattheirthresholdsarelowerthanthatofpreviousresearch,whichindicatedthatconvectiveinstabilityandenergyaccumulationcaneasilyleadtosevereconvectiveweathereventuallyduetotheinfluenceofTCs.

  • 标签: TROPICAL CYCLONES SEVERE CONVECTION STATISTICS