简介:Basedontheretrospectionofresearchesoncarryingcapacity,thisarticlereviewedsystematicallytheresearchprogressesoncarryingcapacityofrelativeresources(CCRR).ThentheviewpointwasputforwardthatCCRRisnotanappropriatemethodofappraisingtheregionalsustainability,butasoundwaytoobtaincognitionforcoordinatingspatiallocationandflowofpopulationandeconomy.However,asthemostpopularcomputingmethodofCCRR,theWeightingLinearSumModelisdefectiveintherandomofweightchoiceandtheneglectofmatchingamongdifferentresources.Therefore,thisarticleestablishedtheGeometricModelonCCRRbasedonmodifyingWeightingLinearSumModel,whichcanbeusedtoappraiseregionswhereresourcesareclosematching.EmployingtheGeometricModel,thearticleempiricallyanalyzedthepopulationandeconomicCCRRinHubeiProvincefrom1978to2006.TheresultindicatesthatthepopulationinHubeiProvinceisoverloadingwhiletheeconomiccarryingcapacityisabundantcomparedtothewholecountry,andtheeconomicinsufficiencyrestrictsthepopulationcarryingcapacity.Inthefuture,HubeiProvincewillbecomeoneofthecoredevelopingzoneswhicharecharacterizedbyeconomicconglomeration.
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简介:Inthisarticle,wepresentanapplicationofAdaptiveGeneticAlgorithmEnergyDemandEstimation(AGAEDE)optimalmodeltoimprovetheefficiencyofenergydemandprediction.Thecoefficientsofthetwoformsofthemodel(bothlinearandquadratic)areoptimizedbyAGAusingfactors,suchasGDP,population,urbanizationrate,andR&Dinputstogetherwithenergyconsumptionstructure,thataffectdemand.Sincethespuriousregressionphenomenonoccursforawiderangeoftimeseriesanalysisineconometrics,wealsodiscussthisproblemforthecurrentartificialintelligencemodel.ThesimulationresultsshowthattheproposedmodelismoreaccurateandreliablecomparedwithotherexistingmethodsandtheChina’senergydemandwillbe5.23billionTCEin2020accordingtotheaverageresultsoftheAGAEDEoptimalmodel.FurtherdiscussionillustratesthattherewillbegreatpressureforChinatofulfilltheplannedgoalofcontrollingenergydemandsetintheNationalEnergyDemandProject(2014—2020).
简介:Animprovedenergydemandforecastingmodelisbuiltbasedontheautoregressivedistributedlag(ARDL)boundstestingapproachandanadaptivegeneticalgorithm(AGA)toobtaincredibleenergydemandforecastingresults.TheARDLboundsanalysisisfirstemployedtoselecttheappropriateinputvariablesoftheenergydemandmodel.Aftertheexistenceofacointegrationrelationshipinthemodelisconfirmed,theAGAisthenemployedtooptimizethecoefficientsofbothlinearandquadraticformswithgrossdomesticproduct,economicstructure,urbanization,andtechnologicalprogressastheinputvariables.Onthebasisofhistoricalannualdatafrom1985to2015,thesimulationresultsindicatethattheproposedmodelhasgreateraccuracyandreliabilitythanconventionaloptimizationmethods.ThepredictedresultsoftheproposedmodelalsodemonstratethatChinawilldemandapproximately4.9,5.6,and6.1billionstandardtonsofcoalequivalentin2020,2025,and2030,respectively.
简介:WiththeKyotoProtocolenteringintoeffectinmanycountriesoneafteranother,carbontradinghascomeintobeinganddevelopedquickly.Chinaisthemainsupplierofcarbonemissionsrightsintheworld,butsuchtransactionsarestillinthestageofCleanDevelopmentMechanism(CDM)projectswithoutitsowntradingsystem,whichisnotconduciveforChinatowintherightsofcarbonpricingintheinternationalmarket.Low-carbonandemissionsreductionistheinternationaltrendnowadays,andtherefore,itisparticularlynecessaryandurgenttoinvestigatetheissueofcarbontradinginChina.Inthispaper,theauthorshavereviewedPutty-ClayVintage,whichisamodelofproductionfunctionforcarbontrading,revealingthemainpoints,contributionsandshortcomingsofthemodel.CombinedwithChina'snationalconditions,theauthorshaveinvestigatedtheapplicationofthismodelinChina'scarbontradingfromfourdifferentangles,includingenterpriseproductionoptimization,financialmarketdevelopment,nationalmacro-economy,andtheallocationofemissionquota.ThisstudyaimstoprovideChina'senterpriseswithananalyticalframeworkwhenparticipatingincarbontradinginthefutureanditisbeneficialforthemtomakeoptimalproductionplanningwhenconsideringthecostofcarbonemissionsreduction.
简介:Thispaperfirstlyextendsthesingleperiodforestoptimalharvestingdecisionmodeltoinfiniteperiods,inordertoindicatehowtodeterminetheoptimalrotationperiodaimedatmaximizingforestrevenueinalldirectionswhenrepeatplantingandharvestingtreesonthesameplotofearthtillinfinitefuture.Thestudyalsoanalyzestheinfluenceofdiscountedrates,timberprice,harvestingcosts,plantingcosts,andtaxonthedeterminationofoptimalrotationperiod;andhowtheoptimalrotationperiodwillchangewhenweintroducethefactorsofcontinuouslyrisingtimberpriceandecologicalrevenue.Secondly,theauthorsintroducetheintergenerationalequityprincipleintotheabovemodeltodesignaresource-exploitingmodewhichsatisfiesbomthedynamicefficiencyprincipleandtheintergenerationalequityprinciple.Lastbutnotleast,theresearchappliestheabovemodeltotheanalysisofChineseforestryeconomicpolicyandexplainstheeconomictheoryofinstitutionssuchasGovernmentPurchasingEcologicalForest,TreeCompensation,andForestrySubsidization,whichprovidesanecessarytheoreticalfoundationforfutureapplicationofthesenewinstitutions.Besides,inregardtomistheoreticalframework,theauthorsanalyzethenecessityoftheNaturalForestProtectionandGrainforGreenprojectswhicharecurrentlybeingimplementedinChina.Wealsopointouttheemphasisofworktoinsuretheprojectsustainableandsuccessful.Finally,theresearchdiscussestheenterprise’sincentivetoover-the-quotaharvestingandthegovernment’smeansofrestrictingsuchbehavior,whichhighlightsthefactmatimprovedsupervisionandhigherpenaltiesarehelpfulinrestrictingover-the-quotaharvesting.
简介:Inordertoachievesustainableutilizationofnaturalresources,saveenergyandprotectenvironmentandecosystem,itisimportantforaregionoranationtodevelopandimplementaviablewasterecyclingmodelfromboththeoreticalandpracticalpointofview.Somepackagingrecyclingmodelsoperatedindevelopedcountriesareintroducedinthisarticle.Aluminiumcanrecoveryandrecyclingisemphasized.Costeffective,economicandenvironmentalbenefitofdifferentmodelsarecomparedandanalyzed.Theresultshowsthatallrecyclingmodelshavetheircharacteristicsduetotheinitialpurposeofrecoveryandthesituationoftheimplementingcountry.However,allthemodelscontributetothereductionofmunicipalsolidwastedisposalandresourcesconservation.
简介:Thepurposeofthispaperistoclarifythequestionsconcerningstimulationoftheinnovationandthediffusionofenergysavingorlow-carbon.Todoso,thispaperexplainsusingtwocasesofJapan-energysavinginnovationaftertheOilShockandtheecopointssystem.Forthecaseaftertheoilshock,weexplaintheenergysavingtrendaftertheOilShockandthefactorsstatistically.Thenweputforwardthebusinessmodelforthelow-carboneconomy.Furthermore,weanalyzethecaseoftheecopointssystemfrom2009-2011inJapanandexplainthesignificanceofthebusinessmodelfordiffusionofthelow-carbonproducts.
简介:Becomingtheworld’slargestemitterofcarbonmakesChinatheobjectofcriticism;however,peoplemayignorethefactthatwhenChinaexportslow-carbonproducts,thecarbonemissionshavebeenleftinthemeanwhile,formingtheso-called"embodiedcarbon".Usingtheinput-outputmodel,thispaperanalyzesthecarbonemissionintensityandamountofembodiedcarbonofvarioussectorsinChina’sexporttradein2002and2007,andfiltersouthighcarbonemissionsectors.Inaddition,thispaperalsopointsouttheproblemofcarbonemissions’internationaltransferfromdevelopedcountriestoChinathroughtheanalysisofnationalandregionalflowofexportcarbonemissionsandchangingoftheproportionofemissionsforexportsrelativetototalemissions,andexplainsthereasonthatcausedcarbontransfertoChinabyusingthetreadmillofproductiontheory.Basedonthat,thispaperproposessomemeasuresforcarbonreductioninChinafromtheforeigntradeperspective.
简介:Inrecentyears,carbonemissionshavegraduallyevolvedfromanenvironmentissueintoapoliticalandeconomicone.Carbontariffhasbroughtaboutnewtradebarriersofdevelopedcountries,andinordertoenhancetheindustrialcompetitivenessofdevelopedcountries,itwillproduceunfavorableimpactondevelopingcountries.Concentratedonthemanufacturingindustry,whichisthemostintensivehigh-carbonindustryinChina’sexportstructure,thisarticlestudiestherelationshipbetweencarbontariffpolicyandindustrystructureofexporttradeandbuildsuparelationbetweenclimatechangeandinternationaltrade.First,bymeansofestablishingapartialequilibriummodel,itappliesgeometricanalysisandmathematicalanalysistocomputetheimpactonChina’smanufacturingexporttradeandtheconsequencesoftheintroductionoftheUScarbontarifftoChina’smanufacturingindustrythathasalreadyimposedadomesticshippingcarbontax.Furthermore,withtheapplicationoftheGTAPmodel,itestimatestheoveralleconomicandwelfareeffectsonChina’smanufacturingindustryiftheUSandEuropeintroducecarbontariffbymeansoffourways,andthenanalyzestheinfluenceonChina’smanufacturingindustryexportstructureandsocialwelfareaswell.TheresultshowsthattheintroductionoftheUScarbonimporttarifflowersChina’sexportpriceandexportvolume,andtheimplementationofadomesticcarbontaxjustifiesahigherexportpriceandalowerexportvolumeforChina.However,thedegreeofexportreductionissmallerthanthatundertheeffectoftheUScarbontariff.InthecaseofdevelopedcountriesimposingcarbontariffonChina’senergy-intensiveindustries,suchaschemicalrubberproducts,oilandcoal-processingindustryandpaperindustry,whoseexportwouldbereduced,thenegativeimpactonthepaperindustryistheseverest,whichwilldecreasethepaperindustry’sexportrangingfrom1.79%to6.05%,whereastheotherindustries’exportwillincrease.Anyhow,itwillpromoteChina�
简介:Thehybridpolicyisaflexiblepolicytoolthatcombinesfeaturesofcarbontradingandcarbontaxation.ItseconomicandenvironmentaleffectsunderChina’sbackgroundarestillnotstudiedindetail.Giventheexogenouscarbonreductiontargets,carbonprices,andcarbontax-rates,bycomputablegeneralequilibriummodelingmethodsandfactordecompositionmethods,thisarticleinvestigatesdirectandcascadedeffectsofthehybridpolicyoneconomicgrowth,energyutilization,andcarbonemissiononthenationallevelandthesectorlevel,withChina’snationalinput-outputdata-set.Stepwisely,policyscenarioswithirrationalestimatedresultsareselectivelyexcludedbasedoncomprehensiveevaluationamongeconomic,carbonreductionandotherpolicytargets.Asaresult,againstnationaleconomicconditionsin2007,thehybridpolicy,withacarbonreductiontargetof-10%,acarbontax-rateofaround$10,andaceilingcarbonpriceof$40,ishighlyrecommended,becauseofitssignificantlowereconomicloss,lowerenergyutilizationcost,andpracticalrobustnessagainstfluctuationofenergymarketandcarbonmarket.Furthermore,bydecompositionanalysis,carbonreduction-relatedcostsaredecomposedintoadirectpartthatincludescarbonallowancepriceandcarbontax,andanindirectpartastheenergypriceincrementalinducedbydirectcarboncosts.Grosscarbonreductionmaybedecomposedintothreepartssuchasenergyintensity,economicscale,andtechnicalprogress.And,carbontaxationisthemainpolicytoolthatstimulatestoimprovetheenergyefficiency.